Fort Ord Prescribed Burn Weather Outlook and Forecast


Potential(model-derived) to Meet Meteorological Prescription to Burn in Next 7 Days

Forecast Day Day # 1
Sunday Sep 24


Potential Burn Day
Day # 2
Monday Sep 25


Mixing Height too low
Day # 3
Tuesday Sep 26


Mixing Height too low
Day # 4
Wednesday Sep 27


Mixing Height too low
Day # 5
Thursday Sep 28


Mixing Height too low
Day # 6
Friday Sep 29


Mixing Height too low
Day # 7
Saturday Sep 30


Mixing Height too low

FORECASTER ADJUSTED Potential to Meet Meteorological Prescription to Burn in Next 7 Days

Forecast Day Day # 1
Sunday Sept 24


Near Perfect burn day.
100% Chance of Meeting RX
Day # 2
Monday Sept 25


Mixing height may become limited with warming aloft
Temperature possibly too High
80% Chance of Meeting RX
Day # 3
Tuesday Sept 26


Mixing height may be too low
Temperature possibly too High
70% Chance of Meeting RX
Day # 4
Wednesday Sept 27


Reduced mixing height
Temperature possibly too High
50% Chance of Meeting RX
Day # 5
Thursday Sept 28


Reduced mixing height
Temperature possibly too High
50% Chance of Meeting RX
Day # 6
Friday Sept 29


Mixing height is too low
Surface Winds too High
50% Chance of Meeting RX
Day # 7
Saturday Sept 30


Surface Winds too High in PM
Mixing height too low
50% Chance of Meeting RX


REASONING

Upper-level trough has moved to east and offshore flow is starting to get set up over the area. Cool air mass today has allowed good mixing to persist with weak winds giving a day that meets prescription. Over next few days, ridge builds over the area giving offshore flow and surface warming. Monday looks like mixing will still be adequate but further warming aloft on Tuesday will begin to limit mixing. This is the main issue going into the week is that mixing will become very limited. Temperatures will be warm at the surface but may not be high enough to get deep mixing. By end of the week sea breeze may impact more in the afternoon as the offshore flow weakens with the passing of a weak trough to our north. Ridge rebounds next weekend to give warming with very little nmixing indicated.

Ft Ord Burn Weather Prescription

Parameters Parcel Weather RX (desired) FORECAST/OUTLOOK EXPLANATION

The forecasts in the above color coded outlook are
automatically generated from numerical model forecasts.
Five parameters are checked (surface wind speed,
transport level wind speed, mixing height, temperature,
and relative humidity). If all 5 fall within a certain
range of the prescribed values then the day is colored
green. If 1 or 2 fall outside of the range, then the day
is colored yellow. If 3 or more fail, then it is a red day.
Human forecasts are initiated if day 5 is green or yellow.
SURFACE WIND (speed) less than 5 mph
SURFACE WIND (direction) SE to W (thru N)
Transport Level Wind (speed) less than 10 mph
(1500-2500ft) (direction) SE to W (thru N)
Mixing Height greater than 1500 ft
Temperature 45-80 F
Relative Humidity 20 to 60%
Clouds clear


Fort Ord area Weather Stations
Ord Profiler NPS Wind Profiler Mixing Height
Fort Ord area Weather Stations
POM Sodar Met Site . POM Sodar -- last 4 Hrs
. Fort Ord, RAWS Site #2
Fort Ord, Site 5 . Fort Ord, Range 30
NPS Profiler Met Site . Del Monte Beach Met Site



** Links **
Monterey Aquarium Del Monte Beach Airport
Local Area Point Sur Salinas Watsonville
Fort Ord Range 7 Range 30 Animation
Marina Airport Surface Boundary Layer Upper Air
Marina Airport Ceilometer Low Ceilometer High Marina-Air-all
Surface Analysis Monterey Area Monterey Bay Winds NRL-Satellite
Analysis Surface-OPC With Satellite RADAR-NWS
Soundings Oakland Vandenberg -
Discussions NWS Discussion Monterey Bay Coastal Waters
Models NPS MM5 NPS MM5-Prof comparison CANSAC MM5
Calpuff Today 08am 10am 12am 02pm 04pm 06pm Loop
Calpuff Tomorrow 08am 10am 12am 02pm 04pm Loop
NPS WRF Sfc Winds 00h 03h 06h 09h 12h 15h 18h 21h 24h 27h 30h 33h 36h 39h 42h 45h 48h Loop
NPS WRF sfc RH and Clouds 00h 03h 06h 09h 12h 15h 18h 21h 24h 27h 30h 33h 36h 39h 42h 45h 48h Loop
CANSAC MM5 Sfc Winds 00h 03h 06h 09 12h 15h 18h 21h 24h 27h 30h 33h 36h 39h 42h 45h 48h
CANSAC MM5 Mixing Hght 00h 03h 06h 09 12h 15h 18h 21h 24h 27h 30h 33h 36h 39h 42h 45h 48h
Salinas Sounding 00h 03h 06h 09 12h 15h 18h 21h 24h 27h 30h 33h 36h 39h 42h 45h 48h




Department of Meteorology

Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943

Meteorology Home Page: http://www.weather.nps.navy.mil/
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