Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008

Science Workshop

28-30 October 2009

Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA

 

Wednesday, 28 October

 

8:30-8:45                   Welcome remarks

 

Data Management and Special Observations

 

8:45 – 9:10                 Data Management Support for TCS-08/T-PARC

                                    James Moore, NCAR/EOL

 

9:10 – 9:35                 A Graphical Web Catalog for TCS-08 Radar, In Situ, and Dropsonde Data

                                    Michael Herman, C. Lopez-Carillo, J. Cisneros, A. Gallegos, New Mexico Tech

 

9:35 – 10:00              Applications of Long Range Lightning Data in Tropical Cyclones Forecasting over the Western North Pacific Ocean.

                                    Steven Businger and Antti Pessi, University of Hawaii

 

10:00 – 10:30                        Break

 

10:30 – 10:55            Lightning Flash Rates in Cloud Clusters during TCS-08

                                    Lesley A. Leary and Elizabeth A. Ritche, University of Arizona

 

10:55 – 11:20            Doppler Wind Lidar Observations during TCS-08

                                    Ralph Foster1, and David Emmitt2

                                                1 Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington

                                                2 Simpson Weather Associates

 

11:20 – 11: 45           Discussion and future directions related to special observations

 

11:45 – 1:00              Lunch

                       

 

Satellite Observations and Studies

 

1:00 – 1:25                 The Near Real Time and Science Study Satellite Product Suite for the Tropical Cyclone Structure (TCS-08) Field Project

Jeff Hawkins1, Kim Richardson1, Rich Bankert1, Chris Velden2, Derrick Herndon2, Tony Wimmers2, Tim Olander2, Joe Turk3, John Kent4, and Steve Miller5

                                                                        1 Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)

                                                                        2 Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

                                                                        3 Jet Propulsion Laboratory

                                                                        4 Science Applications International Corporation

                                                                        5 Cooperative Institute for Research of the Atmosphere (CIRA)

 

1:25 – 1:50                 Generation and Application of Special Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Datasets for TCS-08

                                    Howard Berger and Chris Velden, CIMSS

 

1:50 – 2:15                 Satellite-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Validation During TCS-08

                                    Derrick Herndon and Chris Velden, CIMSS

 

2:15 – 2:40                 Examples of Scatterometer and Microwave Data Analysis of a few Non-Developng Disturbances of TCS-08

                                    Roger Edson, National Weather Service, Guam

 

2:40 – 3:10                 Break

 

3:10 – 3:35                 TRMM PR-derived Latent Heating Compared with ELDORA Retrievals During the TCS-08 Experiment

                                    Myung-Sook Park and Russell L. Elsberry, Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)

 

3:35 – 4:00                 The Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes and its Precipitation Features

                                                Zhaoxia Pu, Levi Thatcher, and Martin Schroeder, U. of Utah

 

4:00 – 4:15                 Discussion and future directions related to satellite observations

 

Global Model Forecasts

 

4:20 – 4:45                 NOGAPS Ensemble Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Genesis: Evaluations during T-PARC/TCS-08

                                    Andrew Snyder1, Zhaoxia Pu1, Carolyn Reynolds2

                                                                        1 University of Utah

                                                                        2 Naval Research Laboratory

 

4:45 – 5:10                 Evaluations of Global Model Early Track and Formation Predictions During the Combined TCS-08 and

T-PARC Field Experiments

                                    Russell L. Elsberry1, William Clune2, Grant Elliott3, and P. Harr1

                                                1 Naval Postgraduate School

                                                2 Computer Sciences Corporation

                                                3 Bureau of Meteorology, Perth, Australia

 

5:10 – 5:35                 Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Formation Predictions Using the ECMWF 32-day Prediction Model

                                    Russell L. Elsberry1, Mary Jordan1, F. Vitart2

                                                                        1 Naval Postgraduate School

                                                                        2 European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

 

5:35 – 5:45                 Discussion and future directions related to global model forecasts

 

 

Thursday, 29 October

 

Tropical Cyclone Structure: ELDORA Observations

 

8:30 – 8:55                 TCS-08: Mass Fluxes from ELDORA Data

                                    Carlos Lopez-Carillo, New Mexico Tech

 

8:55 – 9:20                 Circulations and Detrained Fluxes for Tropical Cyclones during TCS-08

                                    Jorge Cisneros, D. J. Raymond, and C. Lopez, New Mexico Tech

 

9:20 – 9:45                 Vorticity Budgets in Developing Tropical Cyclones from Airborne Doppler Radar in TCS-08

                                    David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech

 

9:45 – 10:15              Break

 

10:15 – 10:40            Development of a Persistent Low-level Circulation in Pre-depression Hagupit Observed during TCS-08

                                    Michael Bell and Michael Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School

 

10:40 – 11:05            ELDORA Observations of Convective Rainbands in Typhoon Hagupit

                                    Wen-Chau Lee, NCAR/EOL

 

11:05 – 11:15                        Discussion and future directions related to ELDORA observations

 

Tropical Cyclone Structure: Process Studies

 

11:20 – 11:45            New Insights in Tropical Cyclone Dynamics obtained from the TCS-08 Field Experiment

                                    Michael Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School

 

11:45 – 12:10            The Genesis of Typhoon Nuri as Observed during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (TCS-08) Field Experiment – Part 1: The Role of the Easterly Wave Critical Layer.

                                    M. Montgomery, L. l. Lussier III, R. W. Moore, and Z. Wang, Naval Postgraduate School

 

12:10 – 1:15              Lunch

 

1:15 – 1:40                 Convection and Shear Flow in TC Intensification

                                    Hung-Chi Kuo1, C. –P. Chang2, and C.-H. Liu3

                                                                        1 National Taiwan University

                                                                        2 Naval Postgraduate School

                                                                        3 Chinese Cultural University

 

1:40 – 2:05                 High Altitude Aircraft Observations Enabling 3-D Pre-genesis Monitoring

                                    Jeff Hawkins1, Peter Black2, P. A. Harr3, and R. L. Elsberry3

                                                                        1 Naval Research Laboratory

                                                                        2 Science Applications International Inc.

                                                                        3 Naval Postgraduate School

 

2:05 – 2:30                 Re-intensification of TY Sinlaku prior to Extratropical Transition

                                    Elizabeth R. Sanabia and P. A. Harr, Naval Postgraduate School

 

2:30 – 2:55                 Role of Mesoscale Convective Rings and Mesoscale Convective Blowouts in Tropical Cyclone Formations During TCS08  

                                    Alexis Chollet and Russell L. Elsberry, Naval Postgraduate School

 

2:55 – 3:25                 Break

 

3:25 – 3:50                 Ocean Response to the Tropical Cyclones during T-PARC and TCS-08

                                    Darius Baranowski, Sue Chen, Piotr Flatau, and Maria Flatau, Naval Research Laboratory

 

3:50 – 4:15                 Observing and Monitoring the Response of TCS-08 Storms Jangmi and Hagupit to Ocean Eddy Interaction: Rapid Filling and Structure Change versus Slow Intensification

                                    Peter Black1, Yi Jin2, Jeff Hawkins2, and Patrick Harr3

                                                                        1 Science Applications Internatonal Inc.

                                                                        2 Naval Research Laboratory

                                                                        3 Naval Postgraduate School

 

4:15 – 4:40                 Interaction of TC with Ocean and its Induced Ocean Cold Wake – A Two-Way Coupled Air-Ocean COAMPS-TC Study

                                    Sue Chen1, Jerome Schmidt1, Piotr Flatau2, and Melinda Peng1

                                                                        1 Naval Research Laboratory

                                                                        2 SCRIPPS Institution of Oceanography

 

4:40 – 5:05                 Effect of Mesoscale Orography on Tropical Cyclones Near Hawaii’s Big Island

                                    Chris Chambers, University of Hawaii

 

5:05 – 5:30                 Discussion and future directions related to process studies

 

Friday, 30 October

 

Numerical Simulations

 

8:30 – 8:55                 Simulations of Top-Down Tropical Cyclogenesis

                                    Tim Li1, Bob Ge1, and Melinda Peng2

                                                                        1 University of Hawaii

                                                                        2 Naval Research Laboratory

 

8:55 – 9:20                 Dynamics of Concentric Eyewall Formation in TY Sinlaku(2008) – Integration of TCS-08 Observations based on EnKF Data Assimilation

                                    Chun-Chieh Wu1, G.-Y. Lien1, and F. Zhang2

                                                                        1 National Taiwan University

                                                                        2 Pennsylvania State University

 

9:20 – 9:45                 Mesoscale Numerical Simulations of T-PARC/TCS-08 Typhoons with Assimilation of Satellite and Airborne Observations: Predictability Study

                                    Zhaoxia Pu1, Lei Zhang1, and Qingyun Zhang2

                                                                        1 University of Utah

                                                                        2 Naval Research Laboratory

 

9:45 – 10:15              Break

 

 

Numerical Simulations: Predictability

 

10:15 – 10:40            Predictability Challenges during TCS-08

Sharan Majumdar1, M. Yamaguchi1, E. Rappin1, W. Komaromi1, P. Finocchio1, M. Peng2, C. Reynolds2, J. Doyle2, C. Velden3, H. Berger3, R. Langland2, D. Nolan1

                                                                        1 University of Miami

                                                                        2 Naval Research Laboratory

                                                                        3 Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin

 

10:40 – 11:05            Aspects of Tropical Cyclogenesis Predictability during TCS-08

                                    James D. Doyle, Clark Amerault, Carolyn Reynolds, and Hao Jin, Naval Research Laboratory

 

11:05 – 11:30            Observation Data Impact Studies for TCS-08 with NOGAPS/NAVDAS-AR

                                    Rolf Langland, Naval Research Laboratory

 

11:30 – 12:45            Lunch

 

12:45 – 1:10              Ensemble Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Typhoons Nuri and Sinlaku

                                    Greg Hakim and Rahul Mahajan, University of Washington

 

1:10 – 1:35                 Dynamical Initialization for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Predictions

                                    Melinda Peng1, Eric Hendricks1, Tim Li2, and Xuyang Ge2

                                                                        1 Naval Research  Laboratory

                                                                        2 University of Hawaii

 

1:35 – 2:00                         An Evaluation of the COAMPS-TC Performance during TCS-08

J. Doyle, R. Hodur, S. Chen, J. Cummings, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, C.-S. Liou, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, Naval Research Laboratory

 

2:00 – 2:10                 Discussion and future directions related to Numerical simulations and predictability

 

2:10 – 2:30                 Final Discussion of Issues and Future Directions for TCS-08