34th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

Hyatt Regency Hotel
Monterey, CA, October 26-30, 2009

All workshop sessions will be held in the Monterey Grand Ballroom (MGB) area of the hotel. The oral sessions will be held in the Beach-Pacific Room of the MGB area, and the poster sessions will be held in the Grove Room of the MGB area. Onsite registration, packets for registered participants, and Monterey visitor information will be available at the MGB Terrace.

Monday, October 26, 2009         

08:00 – 09:00 Welcoming Remarks and Keynote Speech
    Wayne Higgins, Climate Prediction Center
  0.02  Tom Murphree, Naval Postgraduate School
  0.03   David Titley, Oceanographer of the Navy

Session 1:         Recent climate events                 
                             Chair:  Wayne Higgins

09:00 - 09:20 1.01 An overview of the 2008-2009 La Nina and transition to El Nino
    Michelle L'Heureux and CPC ENSO Forecast Team, CPC
     
09:20 – 09:40 1.02 An evaluation of the skill of ENSO forecasts during 2002-2009
    Anthony Barnston and M. Tippett, IRI
     
09:40 – 10:00 1.03 An overview of the 2009 hurricane season
    Jae-Kyung Schemm and G. Bell, CPC  
     
10:00 – 10:20 1.04 Reducing the area covered by “EC” in CPC 3-month outlooks
    Ed O'Lenic, CPC
     
10:20 - 10:50   Break
     
10:50 – 11:10 1.05 The world-wide monsoon systems in 2008-2009
    Song Yang and CPC Global Monsoon Monitor Team, CPC
     
11:10 – 11:30  1.06 (Cancelled)
     
11:30 – 11:50 1.07 Annual U.S. drought highlights and verification of the CPC seasonal  drought outlooks
    Douglas Le Comte, CPC
     
11:50 - 13:00   Lunch

Session 2:          Shift in climate means and interdecadal variability        
                              Chair:  Wieslaw Maslowski

13:00 – 13:20 2.01 Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on hydroclimate over the United States
    Kingtse Mo, CPC
     
13:20 – 13:40 2.02 Prediction of TC frequency and seasonality within the core of the warm pool of the Americas
    Phillip Englehart and A. Douglas, Creighton University
     
13:40 – 14:00 2.03 The South American monsoon system and the 1970s climate transition
    Leila Carvalho, C. Jones, B. Liebman, A. Silva and P. Silva Dias, UCSB
     
14:00 – 14:20 2.04 A global perspective of southern Asian monsoon annual mean precipitation in the Global Precipitation Climatology Project analysis (1979-2006)
    A. Sudradjat, A. Gruber, J. Janowiak and R. Ferraro, UMD/ESSIC
     
14:20 – 14:40 2.05 Two types of strong northeast Asian summer monsoon
    Jung-Eun Kim, Yonsei University, Korea
     
14:40 – 15:00 2.06 What is happening to the North Atlantic active hurricane era that began in 1995?
    Muthuvel Chelliah, CPC
     
15:30 – 15:50 2.07 Interannual and interdecadal variations of winter time blocking frequency
over the Asian continent and its relation to east Asian winter monsoon
    Hyunsoo Lee, W. Yun and C. Park, KMA, Korea
     
15:50 – 16:10 2.08 Predictability of seasonal Sahel rainfall using GCMs and lead-time improvements using a coupled model
    Ousmane Ndiaye, N. Ward and W. Thiaw, IRI
     
16:10 – 16:30 2.09  The role of long-term trend in seasonal predictions: Implication of global warming in the NCEP CFS
    Ming Cai and Co-authors, FSU
     
16:30 – 16:50 2.10 Decadal prediction: Periodicity and its discontents
    Arthur Greene, IRI
     
16:50 – 17:10 2.11 Towards advanced understanding and prediction of Arctic climate change
    Wieslaw Maslowski, NPS
     
17:10 – 17:30 2.12 The atmospheric circulation response to climate change-like thermal forcings in a simple model
    Amy Butler, CPC
     
18:00 - 19:30   Ice breaker social event at Monterey Grand Ballroom Terrace of the Hyatt Regency Hotel

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Session 3:          Coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling of the climate system -  CFS Reanalysis                          
                              Chair:  Suranjana Saha

08:00 – 08:20 3.01 Overview of the CFS Reanalysis Project
    Suranjana Saha, EMC
     
08:20 – 08:40 3.02 Assembly and application of NCEP/CFSRR observation datasets
    Jack Woollen, EMC
     
08:40 – 09:00 3.03 The land analysis for the NCEP CFSRR
    Michael Ek, J. Meng, R. Yang, G. Gayno and P. Xie, EMC
     
09:00 – 09:20 3.04 The oceanic component of Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
    Yan Xue, D. Behringer, B. Huang and A. Kumar, CPC
     
09:20 – 09:40 3.05  CFSRR: Assessment of CFSRR medium range forecast skill
    Robert Kistler, EMC
     
09:40 – 10:00 3.06 Monitoring atmospheric mass in CFSR
    Huug van den Dool and S. Saha, CPC
     
10:00 - 10:30   Break
     
10:30 – 10:50 3.07 Surface temperature, precipitation and fluxes in the CFSR
    Wanqiu Wang, P. Xie, S. Yoo, Y. Xue and A. Kumar, CPC
     
10:50 – 11:10 3.08 Intercomparison of daily precipitation statistics over the United States in observations and reanalysis products
    Wayne Higgins and V. Kousky, CPC

Session 4:         Coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling of the climate system - Intraseasonal and seasonal
                             predictability                                            
                             Chair:  Arun Kumar

11:10 – 11:30 4.01 A framework for assessing operational model MJO forecasts
    Jon Gottschalk, CPC
     
11:30 – 11:50 4.02 Probabilistic forecast skill of extreme weather in weeks 1-4 in the UnitedStates during winter
    Charles Jones, J. Gottschalk. L. Carvalho and W. Higgins, UCSB 
     
11:50 – 12:10 4.03 Evaluation of MJO hindcast skill of the GEOS5 coupled model
    Yehui Chang, S. Schubert, M. Suarez and D. Waliser, NASA/GSFC
     
12:10 - 13:30   Lunch
     
13:30 - 15:00   Poster session 1
     
15:00 – 15:20 4.04 Representation of MJO variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System
    Scott Weaver, W. Wang and A. Kumar, CPC
     
15:20 – 15:40 4.05 Influence of atmospheric intraseasonal variability on ENSO prediction
    Wanqiu Wang, M. Chen A. Kumar and Y Xue, CPC
     
15:40 – 16:00 4.06  Statistical-dynamical intraseasonal prediction of tropical cyclogenesis inthe western north Pacific
    Tom Murphree, D. Meyer, B. Mundhenk and C. Raynack, NPS 
     
16:00 – 16:20 4.07 Seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasting using the CFS SST data
    Tim LaRow, FSU
     
16:20 – 16:40 4.08 Dynamic hurricane season prediction experiment with the NCEP CFSGCM
    Lindsey Long and J. Schemm, CPC
     
16:40 – 17:00 4.09 Caribbean/Central America hurricane landfall probabilities
    Philip Klotzbach, CSU
     
17:00 – 17:20  4.10 (Cancelled)

Tuesday, October 27, 2009                 

Poster Session 1,   Chair:  Yan Xue

13:30 – 15:00         

P1-01 Overview of the 2008-2009 global monsoons
  Song Yang and CPC Global Monsoons Team, CPC
   
P1-02 The NCEP GODAS ocean analysis of the tropical Pacific mixed layer heat budget on seasonal to interannual time scales
  Boyin Huang, CPC
   
P1-03 The relationship between dominant modes of oscillations and intraseasonal climate variability over Canada
  Amir Shabbar, Environment Canada
   
P1-04 Spatial analysis of extreme precipitation events in high-resolution climate model results and observations over the Korean peninsula
  Yu-Kyung Hyun and Co-authors, KMA, Korea 
   
P1-05 Advanced oceanic monitoring tools for ENSO: Application to the recent ENSO cycles during 2006-2009
  Yan Xue, B. Huang and A. Kumar, CPC 
   
P1-06 Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation simulated by NCEP GODAS
  Boyin Huang, CPC
   
P1-07 Influence of Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation changes in tropical Atlantic variability: A regional coupled model study
  Caihong Wen, P. Chang and R. Saravanan, CPC
   
P1-08 Decadal variation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
  Kyong-Hwan Seo, Pusan National Univ., Korea
   
P1-09 Investigating decadal variability and trends in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
  Celine Bonfils, LLNL
   
P1-10 Assess global SST impact on the atmosphere in the observation using the generalized equilibrium feedback analysis
  Zhengyu Liu, Univ. of Wisconsin
   
P1-11 Robust land-ocean contrasts in energy and water cycle feedbacks
  John Fasullo, NCAR
   
P1-12 Can a classical eastern boundary upwelling system (EBUS) like the Benguela turn into an anomalous EBUS like the Leeuwin Current System (LCS) in a changing climate?
  Mary L. Batteen, NPS
   
P1-13 Evaluation of atmospheric analyses and climate variability from NCEP's new Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) as compared to ERA40, NCEP/NCAR R1 and NCEP/DOE R2
  Muthuvel Chelliah, CPC
   
P1-14 Relationship between SST and precipitation in tropical oceans in CFSR
  Jiande Wang, EMC
   
P1-15 Summer season predictions over America with the NCEP CFS using different land surface models and different initial conditions
  Rongqian Yang, K. Mitchell, J. Meng and M. Ek, EMC
   
P1-16 A preliminary overview of surface water components in the NCEP CFSR and the Global Reanalysis II (GR2)
  Rongqian Yang, M. Ek and J. Meng, EMC
   
P1-17 Global soil moisture fields in the NCEP CFSR
  Jesse Meng, M. Ek and R. Yang, EMC
   
P1-18  Sea ice in the CFS Reanalysis
  Xingren Wu, EMC
   
P1-19 The diurnal cycle of SST in CFSRR
  Sudhir Nadiga, EMC
   
P1-20  Preliminary evaluation of the upper atmosphere in the CFS Reanalysis
  Craig Long, S. Zhou, S-K Yang and A. Butler, CPC
   
P1-21 Data available from the NCEP CFSRR
  Patrick Tripp, EMC
   
P1-22 Preliminary comparison of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis to an ensemble of analyses
  Wesley Ebisuzaki, CPC

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Session 5:         Coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling of the climate system - Predictability                          
                             Chair:  Kingtse Mo

08:00 – 08:20 5.01 APCC operational climate prediction and model diagnostics
    Karumuri, A., Woo-Jin Lee, D. Lee and H. Jeong, APCC, Korea
     
08:20 – 08:40 5.02 Dynamical downscaling of coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal forecasts
    Raymond Arritt, Iowa State University
     
08:40 – 09:00 5.03 Multi-model high resolution seasonal climate forecasting system:  an application to southeast US           
    Young-Kwon Lim and Co-authors, FSU
     
09:00 – 09:20 5.04 Exploring possibility to forecast annual mean temperature with IPCC and AMIP runs
    Peitao Peng and A. Kumar, CPC
     
09:20 – 09:40 5.05 Understanding uncertainty in climate model components
    Robin Tokmakian, NPS
     
09:40 – 10:00 5.06 Can small ensembles reproduce non-Gaussian forecast statistics?
    L. Ivanov, C. Collins and T. Margolina, NPS


Session 6:         Application of climate science in decision making -
                             Protected species, marine life and GIS applications        
                             Chair:  Paul Fiedler

10:20 – 11:40 6.01 Climate Shifts and management of marine mammals
    Paul Fiedler, I. Vilchis and L. Ballance, NOAA SW FSC
     
10:40 – 11:00 6.02 Evaluating climate change effects on protected species: A cross-systemapproach for Oregon coast coho salmon
    Thomas Wainwright, P. Lawson and W. Peterson, NOAA NW FSC
     
11:00 – 11:20 6.03 Integrating climate forecasting tools in predictive models of marinemammal distribution
    Elizabeth Becker, D. Foley, K. Forney and J. Barlow, NOAA SW FSC
     
11:20 – 11:40 6.04 Incorporating climate change science in the Endangered Species ActRecovery Implementation Program for Texas Edwards aquifer
    Todd Votteler. Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority
     
11:40 – 12:00 6.05 HabitatSpace – GIS based tools for marine habitat determination andmarine spatial planning
    Tiffany Vance, NOAA/NMFS Alaska FSC
     
12:00 – 12:10  6.06  Enabling the transition of CPC products to GIS format:                               GrADS/GIS
    Viviane Silva, J. Adams and W. Ebisuzaki, CPC
     
12:10 – 12:20 6.07 An update on how CPC is utilizing GIS
    Kenneth Pelman and V. Silva, CPC
     
12:20 - 13:30   Lunch
     
13:30 - 15:00   Poster session 2

Session 7:           Application of climate science in decision making - Forecast applications                 
                               Chair:  Mike Halpert

15:00 – 15:20 7.01 Leveraging new technologies for climate and drought information delivery 
    Jason Symonds, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC
     
15:20 – 15:40 7.02 The current status of CFS and COAPS climate models in crop applications
    Dong-Wook Shin, COAPS/FSU
     
15:40 – 16:00 7.03 The value of ENSO forecast information to dual purpose winter wheat production in the US southern High Plains
    Steven Mauget, USDA
     
16:00 – 16:20 7.04 Climate service for the tropical Pacific region – what do users need and what can we provide?
    Luke He and Co-authors, CPC
     
16:20 – 16:40 7.05  NOAA local 3-month temperature outlook performance evaluation
    Marina Timofeyeva and Co-authors, NOAA/NWS
     
16:40 – 17:00 7.06 The implications of replacing the IPCC Framework with a national standard based on Life Cycle Climate Framework
    Stanley Rhodes, SCS
     
19:00 - 22:30   Monterey Bay Aquarium Event: Guest presentation by Eileen Shea of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center --- plus dinner, exhibit viewing in the main wing of the aquarium, and discounted shopping at the aquarium store

Wednesday October 28, 2009

Poster Session 2,   Chair:  Michelle L’Heureux

13:30 – 15:00               

P2-01 Dynamic regional downscaling of the North American monsoon from NCEP Climate Forecast System
  Steven Chan, FSU
   
P2-02 Variability of the East Asian Mei-yu and prediction by the NCEP CFS
  Hui Gao and Co-authors, NCC, China
   
P2-03 Variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and prediction by the NCEP CFS
  Yueqing Li, S. Yang, R. Wu, W. Higgins and H. Gao, NCC, China
   
P2-04 Harvesting model uncertainty for the simulation of interannual variability
  Vasubandhu Misra, FSU
   
P2-05 The new seasonal prediction system at  the Japan Meteorological Agency
  Yukiko Naruse and Co-authors, JMA, Japan
   
 P2-06 Vertical heating structures associated with the MJO in JMA one-month model forecasts: A case study in December 2006
  Hitoshi Sato and Co-authors, JMA, Japan
   
P2-07 Factors affecting forecast skill of the MJO over the Maritime Continent
  Augustin Vintzileos, EMC
   
P2-08 Developing and improving MJO forecast tools using constructed analog model
  Qin Zhang, P. Peng and H. van den Dool, CPC
   
P2-09 Variability and predictability in seasonal mean surface temperature with ENSO SSTs 
  Bhaskar Jha and A. Kumar, CPC
   
P2-10 Low-frequency variability of ocean sub-surface in the assimilation of SST into CFS 
  Hui Wang and Co-authors, CPC
   
P2-11 The replication of ENSO-related anomalies over the United States by several AMIP models
  Michelle L'Heureux, A. Kumar, W. Wang and J. Bha
   
P2-12 Capturing time series of stochastic forcing
  Cecile Penland, PSD/ESRL
   
P2-13 Reemergence of sea ice cover anomalies and the role of the sea ice-albedo feedback in GCM simulations
  Eric DeWeaver, NSF
   
P2-14 Lessons learned from a super-parameterized coupled AOGCM simulation
  Charlotte DeMott, Colorado State Univ.
   
P2-15 The effect of spectral nudging in the coupled regional model simulation skill
  Elena Yulaeva and M. Kanamitsu, SIO/UCSD
   
P2-16 Multi-model seasonal climate forecast skill and predictability for the southeast US
   Lydia Stefanova, FSU/COAPS
   
P2-17 Evaluating the experimental extended GEFS
  Malaquias Pena, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, D. Hou and Z. Toth, EMC
   
P2-18 Synthesis of climate modeling issues from FY09 NOAA CTB Joint Seminar Series
  Jiayu Zhou, OST/NWS

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Session 8:          Application of climate science in decision making -  Water management                 
                              Chair:  Kelly Redmond

08:00 – 08:20 8.01 Improving Millerton Lake flood control operations to increase water supply 
    Antonio Buelna, D. DeFlitch and K. Lee, USBR
     
08:20 – 08:40 8.02 Policy framework for incorporating climate products in western watermanagement
    Jeanine Jones, CA Dept. of Water Resources
     
08:40 – 09:00 8.03 Seasonal Markov mixture models for rainfall amounts: Implications ofclimate states
    Tirusew Asefa and A. Adams, Tampa Bay Water
     
09:00 – 09:20  8.04 Improving seasonal predictions of climate variability and water availabilityat the catchment scale
    Matthew Switanek, Univ. of Arizona
     
09:20 – 09:40 8.05 Paleo-climate data and adaptation measures in the Lower Colorado River Basin
    Kiyomi Morino and R. Bark, Univ. of Arizona
     
09:40 – 10:00 8.06  Reliability of stream flow forecasts for the Rio Yaqui Basin
    Francisco Munoz-Arriola and Co-authors, Univ. of Washington

Session 9:         Impact of global scale climate variations on western US weather and climate -
                             Processes affecting the western US

                             Chair:  Huug van den Dool

10:30 – 10:50 9.01 Evaluation of 9 years of CPC long range precipitation forecasts in the northern Sierra Nevada
    Maurice Roos, CA Dept. of Water Resources
     
10:50 – 11:10 9.02 A freezing level tool for drought monitoring
    Kelly Redmond, J. Abatzoglou and G. Kelly, DRI
     
11:10 – 11:30 9.03 Development of new snowstorm indices and databases
    Michael Squires and Co-authors, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC
     
11:30 – 11:50 9.04 Precipitation analysis for improved monitoring and assessments of globalclimate
    Pingping Xie, S. Yoo, R. Joyce and Y. Yarosh, CPC
     
11:50 - 13:30   Lunch
     
13:30 - 15:00   Poster session 3
     
15:00 – 15:20 9.05 Evolution of MJO in ECMWF and GFS forecasts
    John Janowiak, UMD/ESSIC
     
15:20 – 15:40 9.06  Trends in cooling monthly maximum-temperatures in coastal areas of the SFBA and LA during 1969-2005: averages and extremes
    Robert Bornstein, A. Charland, B. Lebassi and J. Gonzalez, San Jose State U.
     
15:40 – 16:00 9.07 Large scale patterns associated with California heat waves and their use in a hindcast and future climate
    Richard Grotjahn, UC Davis
     
16:00 - 16:20  9.08 RAMS modeled differences between 1970 and 2005 summer day timetemperatures and winds in coastal California 
    Bereket Lebassi, J. Gonzalez and R. Bornstein, Santa Clara Univ.
     
16:20 – 16:40 9.09  Association of wet and dry periods in northern California precipitation with climate indices
    David Reynolds, NOAA/NWS
     
16:40 – 17:00 9.10 SST diurnal cycle over western hemisphere: Preliminary results from the new MPM high-resolution data set

 

  Wanqiu Wang, P. Xie and C. Huang, CPC

Thursday, October 29, 2009                 

Poster Session 3,  Chair: Jae-Kyung Schemm

13:30 – 15:00 

P3-01 Update and progress of the NCEP multi-model NLDAS for drought and flood monitoring and prediction
  Youlong Xia, EMC
   
P3-02  Evaluation of energy fluxes simulated by the NCEP North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)
  Matthew Switanek, Univ. of Arizona
   
P3-03  Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF)
  Viviane Silva and D. Miskus, CPC
   
P3-04 JAWF – Agricultural assessments
  Brian Morris and JAWF Team, USDA
   
P3-05 Human heat-stress values during the July 2006 Portland, Oregon heat wave
  Andrew Melford and R. Bornstein, San Jose State Univ.
   
P3-06 Predictions of the west coast climate using dynamical downscaling
  Darco Koracin and R. Vellore, DRI
   
P3-07 Interannual variability of the cyclonic activity along the US  Pacific coast: Influences on the characteristics of winter precipitation in the western US        
  Boksoon Myoung and Y. Deng, Georg. Inst. of Tech.
   
P3-08 Overview of Mexico City meteorological conditions using observations and numerical simulations
  Peter Kozich, B. de Foy, C. Graves and T. Eichler, St. Louis University
   
P3-09 Providing climate information to decision makers for MesoAmerican food security and early warning
  Angel McCoy, CPC
   
P3-10  Adaptation support for climate services: Sectors, regions, and product lines 
  Tim Owen, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC
   
P3-11 Climate change and national security impacts – A current survey
  David Smarsh and K. Pfeiffer, NPS
   
P3-12 Springtime in the Intra-Americas Seas: air-sea interactions, low-level jet, and impact on tornadoes and precipitation 
  Ernesto Munoz, D. Enfield and C. Wang, NOAA/AOML
   

Friday, October 30, 2009

Session 10:           Impact of global scale climate variations on western US weather and climate -
                                 Teleconnections and the western US

                                 Chair:  Tom Murphree

08:00 – 08:20 10.01 An assessment of the potential predictability of drought and pluvialconditions over the United States based on climate model simulations with specified SST 
    Siegfried Schubert, H. Wang, M. Suarez and R. Koster, NASA/GSFC
     
08:20 – 08:40 10.02 The characteristic of daily precipitation over the United States using the North American Regional Reanalysis
    Emily Becker, CPC
     
08:40 – 09:00 10.03 The extratropical flow response to recurving tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific
    Heather Archambault. L. Bosart and D. Keyser, SUNY at Albany
     
09:00 – 09:20 10.04 The mysterious coherence between the Pacific quasi-decadal oscillation  and the Great Salt Lake level 
    Shih-Yu Wang, R. Gillies, J. Jin and L. Hipps, Utah State Univ.
     
09:50 – 10:10 10.05 How unusual have recent ENSO event impacts been in the Western US?
    Klaus Wolter, Univ. of Colorado-CIRES
     
10:10 – 10:30 10.06 Atmospheric rivers and snow accumulation in the Sierra Nevada:Relationship with mountain surface air temperature
    Bin Guan, NASA/JPL
     
10:30 – 11:00   Closing remarks
     
11:00   Workshop adjourns